🔗 Share this article Will Scotland finally break the long-standing losing streak? The All Blacks have made three modifications to the squad that overcame Ireland Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks Venue: Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh Date: Saturday, 8 November Time: 3:10 PM GMT Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement. Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test. A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain." Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent. A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued. Modern Encounters Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent. In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos. Team News In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail. Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done. As match day approaches where positive expectations that some may have held for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history. Missing Players Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts. The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern. During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations. Squad Depth They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time. And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard. Coaching Choices Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach. The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23. Historical Context Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the 31-23 defeat to New Zealand in 2022 Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick. That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing. Statistical Analysis Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half. They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps. Required Performance Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily. The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there. In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand. Conclusion Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? It's over. But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham. Optimistic thinking, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.